With the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, European security has gained new levels of traction in some countries. Ending their historical position of non-alignment, Finland and Sweden have decided to become members of the NATO and Denmark has dismissed its 30-year opt-out from the Common Security and Defence Policy. At the same time, Norway has kept its stable position of non-alignment. In their recently published study, Marta Migliorati analyses these developments and proposes that crises can either amplify or reverse decoupling i.e., the disconnection between symbolic commitments to international institutions and the limited implementation of their policies. If crises intensify interdependence between states, preferences of elites and the public may shift towards deeper integration and thus windows of opportunities for policy change evolve. To test this theoretical framework, Marta Migliorati studies recent defense policy changes (or the lack thereof) in Nordic countries. The results of the analyses show that while in Sweden and Finland, citizens’ preferences for non-alignment had already started to slowly decrease, a drastic change of public sentiment to also end non-alignment symbolically only unfolded when the volatility of the international environment reached its peak with the Russian invasion in 2022. Similarly, although for Sweden a NATO membership is relatively costly due to investment in military capabilities, the Russian attack changed the originally strong preferences of citizens and political elites against a NATO membership. By contrast, in Norway, the crisis did not open a window of opportunity for change due to the historical de-politicization of EU matters by Norwegian elites and the rather Eurosceptic public. Overall, the study suggests that crises can indeed lead to stronger integration but only if they foster the respective preferences among elites and citizens alike.
